Tropical Storm NURI Advisory Sat Jun 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 387
NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 120553Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES THAT THIS INTENSE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE OUTER
SPIRAL BANDING, WHICH WRAPS INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 36GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LLCC. FORTUNATELY, A
120207Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
AND ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WHILE A 120630Z ADT
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A WEAK TUTT CELL
POSITIONED TO THE EAST NEAR 16N 135E; HOWEVER, A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SST (30-31C) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 02W IS TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A GRADUAL RECURVE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE DATA ALSO SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH THE
BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. TD
02W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36 UNDER
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, VWS SHOULD INCREASE TO
MODERATE LEVELS BY TAU 12-24, WHICH MAY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. AFTER
TAU 40, TD 02W WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VWS AND LAND EFFECTS. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.//
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