Tropical Storm HAGUPIT Advisory Sun Aug 02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 010652Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25
TO 30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE
WITH LOW NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HINDERING
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OFFSET BY THE IMPROVED
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (30C). TD 03W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED
TO THE NORTH AND ALSO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR THROUGH TAU 48 THEN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD THE SHANGHAI REGION OF EASTERN CHINA.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOLE OUTLIER, NAVGEM, THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 144NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS FROM NAZE (47909) AND MINAMIDAITO-JIMA
(47945) SUPPORT THE CURRENT TRACK PHILOSOPHY AND SHOW LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW REFLECTING THE STRONG STR. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36,
HOWEVER, INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
SHOULD HAMPER DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 36. DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 48, TD 03W WILL WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SHOULD
COMMENCE NEAR TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RECURVE INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOL WATER (22-23C) OF THE WEST SEA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES
BUT MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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