Tropical Storm HAGUPIT Advisory Mon Aug 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 020815Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 020445Z
AMSR2 WIND PRODUCT REVEALS 40-45 KNOT WINDS ISOLATED TO THE EASTERN
QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGE AS WELL AS AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (ABOUT 40 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (30C). HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW IS INCREASING ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM
AND IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 03W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS NOW DISSIPATING IN THE LATER
FORECAST PERIOD INSTEAD OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
   B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36 THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER
EASTERN CHINA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOLE OUTLIER, NAVGEM,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 135NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24, HOWEVER, INCREASING NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) SHOULD HAMPER DEVELOPMENT AFTER
TAU 12. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 24, TS 03W WILL WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 36, TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OVER EASTERN CHINA THEN OVER THE COOL
WATER (22-23C) OF THE WEST SEA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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