MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC FEATURES PRESENT IN A 040206Z AMSU COMPOSITE IMAGE AND THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHENGXIAN 30 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, HANGZHOU 27 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND QU XIAN 80 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HOSTILE AND WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AS TD HAGUPIT CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER RUGGED TERRAIN AND UNDER MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, MUCH OF THE SYSTEM'S UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS ERODED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TD 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD HAGUPIT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER THE RAGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN CHINA AND BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AS IT PASSES WEST OF SHANGHAI. STRONG (25+ KTS) VWS AND THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING TO 25 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AND ENTER THE YELLOW SEA. COOL (<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING TO 20 KTS AND DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF LAND PASSAGE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN