MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 039// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY ERODING AFTER IT MADE LANDFALL OVER WESTERN SHIKOKU AND CROSSING RUGGED TERRAIN INTO WESTERN HONSHU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND NUMEROUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE DECAYING CONVECTION. TS 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 11W HAS CRESTED THE STR AXIS AND WILL NOW TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, EXITING INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) JUST AFTER TAU 06, BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HOKKAIDO. THE ADDITION OF COOLER SST IN THE SOJ WILL ACCELERATE THE CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN