Tropical Storm THREE Advisory Fri May 14

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DISPLACED WEST OF AN ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST. HOWEVER, A 130721Z SSMI 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 130725Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT, WELL-DEFINED LLC, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 130500Z ADT
ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.5 (35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (29C). TS 03W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A 90-135NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48 TO TAU 72,
LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TS
03W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MINDANAO FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, TS 03W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING VWS (20-25
KNOTS) AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.//
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