MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 387 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 120553Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THIS INTENSE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE OUTER SPIRAL BANDING, WHICH WRAPS INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 36GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LLCC. FORTUNATELY, A 120207Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS) AND ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WHILE A 120630Z ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A WEAK TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE EAST NEAR 16N 135E; HOWEVER, A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST (30-31C) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 02W IS TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A GRADUAL RECURVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE DATA ALSO SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36 UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, VWS SHOULD INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS BY TAU 12-24, WHICH MAY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 40, TD 02W WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VWS AND LAND EFFECTS. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.// NNNN NNNN