MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 22// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN, SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE EYE FEATURE REMAINS BUT IT HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 030600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE ERODING, NOW 7 NM WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW AND SLIGHTLY BELOW A 030454Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 112 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY 30W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. HOWEVER, TY 30W HAS CROSSED INTO THE POOL OF COOLER (26-27 DEGREE CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE A PRODUCT OF UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE PASSAGE OF TY TRAMI SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THESE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE LED TO A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY. TY 30W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 48, TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN AND THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, TY 30W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AROUND AFOREMENTIONED STR AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AND TY 30W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SMALL ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD. HOWEVER, THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN THE ALONG-TRACK FORECAST SPEED, SPECIFICALLY AFTER TAU 48. COTC IS THE WESTERN OUTLIER INDICATING A SLOWER TRACK SPEED WITH GFS AND HWRF THE EASTERN OUTLIERS INDICATING A FASTER TRACK SPEED. HWRF AND COTC HAVE A SPREAD OF 390 NM BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH AND ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. TY 30W WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED REMAIN. NOTABLY, CTCX AND ECMWF HAVE A SPREAD OF 870 NM BY TAU 120 WITH CTCX THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE FASTER SOLUTION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE FASTER SOLUTION. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN