MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 03 RELOCATED// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS IT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WHICH ALSO DEPICTS A PARTIAL VIEW OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK NORTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. INCREASED OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COTC AS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN