Tropical Storm NANMADOL Advisory Mon Jul 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
DESPITE THE IMPROVED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, DEEP CONVECTION
HAS CONTINUED TO CYCLE RAPIDLY ALONG THE FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE MIYAKO-JIMA RADAR SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED, SHALLOW (LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL), AND COMPACT
EYEWALL. ADDITIONALLY, A 020545Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND CORE CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE ROBUST OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST
VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 30 TO 31C. TS 05W IS TRACKING QUICKLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY,
HOWEVER, PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS.
   B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, THEREFORE, 05W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PEAK INTENSITY WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS. THE
BULK OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 45 TO 57 KNOTS,
INCLUDING HWRF, WHICH PEAKS AT 57 KNOTS. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 48, TS 05W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS HONSHU AND WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR A RE-CURVE SCENARIO
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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