Tropical Storm NANMADOL Advisory Wed Jul 05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
34 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND
ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS JAPAN AND INTERACTS WITH MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION VISIBLE ON JMA COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TAKEN NEAR THE STORM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, AND THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 05W IS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT IS
ROUNDING THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NANMADOL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION AND MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 6, TS 05W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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