MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED NEAR- RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010652Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HINDERING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OFFSET BY THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (30C). TD 03W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND ALSO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR THROUGH TAU 48 THEN NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD THE SHANGHAI REGION OF EASTERN CHINA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOLE OUTLIER, NAVGEM, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 144NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS FROM NAZE (47909) AND MINAMIDAITO-JIMA (47945) SUPPORT THE CURRENT TRACK PHILOSOPHY AND SHOW LOW- TO MID- LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW REFLECTING THE STRONG STR. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36, HOWEVER, INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) SHOULD HAMPER DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 36. DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TD 03W WILL WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SHOULD COMMENCE NEAR TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RECURVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL WATER (22-23C) OF THE WEST SEA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES BUT MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN