Tropical Storm BAVI Advisory Wed Aug 26

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A
13NM RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM. A 250455Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEPER CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE
THE 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
BECOME FRAGMENTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RAGGED EYE IN MSI
AND THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY
PLACES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY, SET AT 95 KTS, IS BASED ON A STRENGTHENING TREND
OBSERVED IN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE AND SATELLITE
CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. FURTHERMORE, CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD LEND
HIGH CONFIENCE TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. TY 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TY 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE STR TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO
BUILD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
SPREAD INCREASING TO 95 NM BY TAU 48. OF NOTE, THE ECMWF
MODEL SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST SINCE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, SHOWING LOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AS TY 09W BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, THE SPREAD IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AS IT TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST CHINA.
THROUGH TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS VWS VALUES DECREASE, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, COOLING
SST (28-25 CELSIUS) AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. TY 09W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU 48 WITH COMPLETION BY
TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE JET FLOW. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
NNNN