Tropical Storm EIGHT Advisory Wed Aug 19

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION
08W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
129 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING AND SUSTAINED CONVECTION
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIRCULATION
CENTER EVIDENT IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION FEATURE PRESENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AN
180552Z ATMS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 40KTS WINDS PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM A 180220Z ASCAT-B
PASS, AS WELL AS MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (PGTW, 45 KTS) AND T2.5 (RJTD, 35 KTS), A 180600Z ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND
A 180600Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 36 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD AND STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SSTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TS HIGOS
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE STR AND MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 NEAR
YANGJIANG, CHINA. THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS AND
WARM SSTS WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50KTS AT TAU 12
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND CHINA,
IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING OVER LAND AND RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO FULL DISSIPATION
OVER LAND BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
MINOR SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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