MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 579 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 260000Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 252350Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 29W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A 252200Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION SHOWS TD 29W IS A WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM. TD 29W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AS TD 29W TRACKS NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STR IT WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD 29W WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES BY TAU 36 WHILE REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN