MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// RMKS/ SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 30// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC AND AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND A 050506Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC AND BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26-27 CELSIUS AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS LIMITED. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WEST-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 30W HAS RECENTLY CRESTED THE STR AXIS AND WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 24, TS 30W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IT WILL COMPLETE ETT SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. DESPITE INCREASING VWS VALUES, TS 30W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS OF 40 KNOTS OR GREATER AS IT DEVELOPS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK, WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DESPITE SOME VARIATION IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED, OVERALL MODEL SPREAD IS LOW AND CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.// NNNN NNNN