Tropical Storm MICHAEL Advisory Thu Oct 11

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Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 83.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Panama City Florida to Keaton Beach Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.7 North,
longitude 83.2 West.  Michael is moving toward the northeast near 20
mph (31 km/h) and this general motion should continue this morning.
A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected
later today through Friday night.  On the forecast track, the core
of Michael will move across central and eastern Georgia this
morning, and then over southern and central South Carolina later
today.  Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern
United States and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (90 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the
southeastern United States, but it is forecast to re-strengthen some
when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a
post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).
During the last few hours, Eastman, Georgia reported a wind gust of
63 mph (102 km/h), McRae, Georgia reported a wind gust of 59 mph
(95 km/h), and Sapelo Island, Georgia reported a wind gust of 45
mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
Warner-Robins Air Force Base near Macon recently reported a
pressure of 980.9 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  Water levels are beginning to recede in some
locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge
and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following
heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high
tide...

Panama City FL to Keaton Beach FL...3-5 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
central and southeastern Georgia, and will spread across portions
of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning this
morning through Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts into Friday...

Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods.

Florida...an additional inch of rain is possible as the tropical
storm moves away from the state eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New
England coast...1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes remain possible today from Georgia
into the Carolinas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven