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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Advisory Sun May 17

17:00
23:00
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012020
2100 UTC SAT MAY 16 2020

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)   X(16)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)

ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   X(14)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   3(17)   X(17)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  29(37)   7(44)   X(44)   X(44)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  19(31)   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  14(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI