Tropical Storm KAREN Advisory Tue Sep 24

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

PONCE PR       34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   7( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

VIEQUES PR     34  2  32(34)  10(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT THOMAS   34  2  24(26)  11(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)

SAINT CROIX    34  5  33(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

SABA           34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

AVES           34 23   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   1(24)   X(24)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
FORECASTER BROWN