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Tropical Storm NESTOR Advisory Sun Oct 20

ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)  17(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   1( 1)  24(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)  41(42)   2(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   3( 3)  11(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   2( 2)  35(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)  38(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   2( 2)  38(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   4( 4)  32(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   5( 5)  29(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X  10(10)  27(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FLORENCE SC    34  X  12(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X  14(14)  18(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X  21(21)  13(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X  26(26)   5(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X  28(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X  28(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X  27(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

KINGS BAY GA   34  2  16(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

WAYCROSS GA    34  5  21(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  2  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

JACKSONVILLE   34  3  11(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  6   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

THE VILLAGES   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 42   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

ST MARKS FL    34 69   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)

APALACHICOLA   34 92   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 21   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECASTER AVILA