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Tropical Storm HARVEY Advisory Sat Aug 19

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
0900 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  13(27)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   7(32)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   X(20)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)

PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)

MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)

KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

AVES           34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

DOMINICA       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MARTINIQUE     34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SAINT LUCIA    34 35   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)

SAINT VINCENT  34 20   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

BARBADOS       34 18   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECASTER AVILA