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Tropical Storm JERRY Advisory Thu Sep 19

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   8(24)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   6(20)   X(20)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   6(26)   X(26)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   4(17)   X(17)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  34(35)   2(37)   X(37)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   2(24)   X(24)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SABA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   1(22)   X(22)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   1(20)   X(20)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  31(35)   1(36)   X(36)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   1(22)   X(22)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
FORECASTER ROBERTS