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Tropical Storm NORMA Advisory Sat Sep 16

ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172017
0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   7(18)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   3( 4)   9(13)  15(28)  37(65)   3(68)   X(68)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)   3(27)   X(27)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   3( 4)   7(11)  12(23)  35(58)   4(62)   X(62)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   3(20)   X(20)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)  34(45)   8(53)   2(55)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   1(16)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  12(24)   8(32)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)

GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   7(13)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   6(18)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   4(20)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   2(14)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   5(13)   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)

MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   1(15)

SAN BLAS       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)

P VALLARTA     34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

15N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

20N 110W       34 41  36(77)  15(92)   3(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)
20N 110W       50  2  25(27)  29(56)   7(63)   3(66)   X(66)   X(66)
20N 110W       64  X   5( 5)  18(23)   6(29)   3(32)   X(32)   X(32)

ISLA SOCORRO   34 36  26(62)  10(72)   3(75)   2(77)   X(77)   X(77)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  1   8( 9)   7(16)   1(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)

20N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   1(14)

25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   4(19)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECASTER AVILA