Tropical Storm RAMON Advisory Thu Oct 05

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM RAMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192017
0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2017

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAMON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

10N 105W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

15N 105W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)  13(34)   2(36)   X(36)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

15N 100W       34  X  16(16)  12(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
15N 100W       50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

10N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)   2(20)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

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