MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) THAT REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BENEATH A THIN CIRRUS LAYER TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 020506Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5-T2.0 (25-30 KTS) SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE-TO- STRONG (10-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTIALLY OFFSETTING GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30 CELSIUS), IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. TD 14W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE; HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 120 HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE VWS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KTS BY TAU 72. THIS INTENSIFICATION CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TD 14W NORTHWESTWARD, PASSING NORTH OF IWO TO PRIOR TO TAU 120. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, PRIMARILY DUE TO CROSS-TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, ALLOWING THE INTENSITY TO REACH 85 KTS AT TAU 120. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SPREADS OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION TO ABOVE 100 KTS BY TAU 120 AS VWS BECOMES VERY FAVORABLE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT TAU 120 IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS, 15-30 KTS BELOW THE MESOSCALE MODELS. IF SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY FOLLOW. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE HIGH SPREAD AT TAU 120.// NNNN NNNN