Tropical Storm LINGLING Advisory Fri Sep 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY,
SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A VERY WELL-DEFINED 20NM
EYE, SUPPORTED THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS
POSITION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CIRCULATION DEPICTED IN A
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM JMA. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT
MIYAKOJIMA (47927), LOCATED AT 24.8N 125.3E, SHOWS EYE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM OCCURRED AT 0500Z WHEN CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED AT
941MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115 KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-TO-MODERATE (10-20KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) REMAINS CONDUCIVE AT 28-29
CELSIUS. TY 15W MAINTAINED A NORTHWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD UNDER THE STR. AFTER
TAU 48, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ENTERING INTO THE
YELLOW SEA AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 120 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SST WILL START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 48, TY 15W WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTH COAST OF NORTH KOREA AROUND TAU 60. WITH LAND INTERACTION OVER
THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TY 15W
WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE UNTIL TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEEDS OVER RUGGED TERRAIN, CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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