Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory Sat Sep 29

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED MAINLY TO THE WEST
OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL
280519Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE IMPROVING BANDING
STRUCTURE OF TD 30W. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1.5 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 30W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH
MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 30 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 30W
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD IT WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 72, TD 30W
WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 170 NM AT TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AND ALLOW TD 30W TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. BY TAU 120, TD 30W WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE STR AXIS AND
TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH A SPREAD OF NEARLY 800 NM BY TAU 120. ECMWF IS THE WESTERN
OUTLIER WITH CTCX THE EASTERN OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR, BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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