MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 10 NM EYE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FALLS BETWEEN THE RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK FIX INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) AND T6.5 (127 KTS), RESPECTIVELY. LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 22W WILL START ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 24 AND GRADUALLY SHIFT ONTO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 72. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36, BEFORE INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, GRADUALLY AT FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY BY TAU 72. WITH ABOUT 120 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. PRIOR TO TAU 72, TY 22W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL TAU 96 WHEN IT BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. HIGH VWS AND COOL SST WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THIS PERIOD. AT TAU 96, SPREAD IS OVER 600 NM, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN