Tropical Storm DANAS Advisory Sun Jul 21

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (DANAS)
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN BANDS AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND OBSERVED WIND AND PRESSURE DATA FROM
BUOY 22102 AND HEUKSANDO. THE 30 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) AND A
SAMPLING OF OBSERVED WINDS UP TO 29 KTS AROUND THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (22-23 CELSIUS) AND PROXIMITY TO LAND
ARE OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TD 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 06W WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT RECURVES
AND TRACKS OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA, STEADILY WEAKEN OVER LAND, AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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