MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 631 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 020546Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A WELL- DEFINED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT CELL POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST, WHICH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT ALSO SHEARING THE CORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TS 09W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 205NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. TS 09W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK WESTWARD, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS FORECAST AT TAU 72. C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER KYUSHU AND SOUTH KOREA ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFS, WHICH RECURVE THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY INTO A STRONG STR, THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES KYUSHU DUE TO THE INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS.// NNNN NNNN