MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 11// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1429 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EAST. THE TUTT CELL, PREVIOUSLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, HAS SLOWLY TRACKED AWAY FROM TS 14W, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A 040456Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE AND MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM PGTW/KNES AND A 032246Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICTING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE TUTT CELL MOVING SLOWLY AWAY, THERE IS A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SYSTEM WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW REMAINS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. TS 14W IS TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC WARNING. B. THE STR OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE TRACK. THE UPPER- LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL ENABLE TS 14W TO RECURVE POLEWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INTENSIFY TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE JAPAN ALPS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS DUE TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN