MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 280652Z SSMIS 91GHZ REVEAL SPRIAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON A 280402Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS AND A 280710Z AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (43 KTS) THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM. HIGH (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) MAKE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, TS 19W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, TS 19W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AT TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT TRANSITS AROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR. MAINTAINING HIGH SST AND LOW VWS, TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT ADVANCES ALONG THE TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KTS 271NM SOUTHWEST OF JEJU BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH NOTABLE OUTLIERS TO BOTH THE EAST AND WEST WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 160NM AT TAU 72. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 19 WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO A NORTHEAST TRACK AT TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE; HOWEVER, COOLING SST AND INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. UPON ENTERING THE SEA OF JAPAN AND INTERACTING WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO TAU 120. ALL GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM RECURVING, HOWEVER, THERE IS A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 314NM. JGSI IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER, MAINTAINING ITS COURSE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TRACK. AS A RESULT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN