Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory Mon Oct 21

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 200500Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 29-
30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 22W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 THEN IT WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN 80NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36 AND 105NM AT
TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WITH AN INTENSITY
NEAR 105 KNOTS AT TAU 36 AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS AT TAU
72. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE 24-HOUR AND 36-
HOUR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS, WHICH TRIGGER WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
RIPE.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS
INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD
IMPROVE. NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED AND TRACK ORIENTATION, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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