Tropical Storm BARIJAT Advisory Thu Sep 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (BARIJAT) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (BARIJAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION TO SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
USING THE MSI IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 120225Z ASCAT DIRECT
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS AVERAGED BETWEEN RJTD AND
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 AND T3.0 (35-45 KTS) AND
SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT PASS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 29 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TS 27W WILL CONTINUE ON A
WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STR, CROSSING THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA AND
STRADDLING THE SOUTH CHINA COAST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
VIETNAM NEAR THE CHINESE BORDER. INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36
AFTER LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.//
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