Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory Mon Oct 01

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEING OBSCURED BY DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE INTENSE FEEDER BANDS,
PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 300409Z ATMS 88 GHZ IMAGE IN WHICH THE CENTER
WAS LOCATED BY FOLLOWING FEEDER BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5-
T4.5 (55-77 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 30W IS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA WITH MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29-30 CELSIUS. TY 30W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
120 KNOTS BY TAU 48. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
(SOUTHERN OUTLIER) AND THE COAMPS-GFS (EASTERN OUTLIER), DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AS A RESULT,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AS IT
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR
AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD, PASSING NEAR OKINAWA, JAPAN BETWEEN TAU 96
AND 120. HIGH VWS AND DIMINISHED OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
WEAKEN TO 75 KTS BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TWO OUTLIERS,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST OVER
260 NM OF SPREAD BY TAU 120. IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND COAMPS-
GFS ARE INCLUDED, THE SPREAD INCREASES TO ALMOST 900 NM BY TAU 120.
DESPITE THE GENERALLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THIS CYCLE,
THIS IS THE FIRST CYCLE WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK CAME IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MEMBERS SO CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
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