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Tropical Storm MICHAEL Advisory Fri Oct 12

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  32(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X  21(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X  20(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X  51(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

NORFOLK VA     34  X  56(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X  62(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X  76(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GREENSBORO NC  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

RALEIGH NC     34 19  15(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
RALEIGH NC     50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ROCKY MT NC    34  7  58(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X  25(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

FAYETTEVILLE   34 75   3(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHERRY PT NC   34  3  39(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

NEW RIVER NC   34  1  19(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  2  22(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)

SURF CITY NC   34 16  16(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

WILMINGTON NC  34 29  10(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)

BALD HEAD ISL  34 15   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

FLORENCE SC    34 96   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)

COLUMBIA SC    34 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)

LITTLE RIVER   34 45   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)

MYRTLE BEACH   34 49   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)

GEORGETOWN SC  34 48   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)

CHARLESTON SC  34 63   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)

AUGUSTA GA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

SAVANNAH GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECASTER BEVEN