Tropical Storm NURI Advisory Sun Jun 14

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (NURI) WARNING
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A REGION OF BUILDING, DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON LOW LEVEL BANDING IN THE MSI THAT IS WRAPPING INTO THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
AT 35 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (32 KTS). TS NURI
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NURI IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12 TS 02W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA (WEST OF HONG KONG) AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH
THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DISSIPATION OVER LAND
BY TAU 36 AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A
SPREAD OF 80 NM, HOWEVER THIS SPREAD INCREASES TO 150 NM BY TAU 48.
THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION PLACES OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. //
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