MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (NURI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A REGION OF BUILDING, DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW LEVEL BANDING IN THE MSI THAT IS WRAPPING INTO THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AT 35 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (32 KTS). TS NURI CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS NURI IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12 TS 02W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA (WEST OF HONG KONG) AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 36 AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A SPREAD OF 80 NM, HOWEVER THIS SPREAD INCREASES TO 150 NM BY TAU 48. THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION PLACES OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. // NNNN NNNN