Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory Thu Apr 27

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
 TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM NORTHWEST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, DESPITE ITS
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CONSOLIDATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT
IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MUIFA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK
NORTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE.
INCREASED OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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