Tropical Storm JANGMI Advisory Mon Aug 10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT
IN THE MSI AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING PRESENT
IN 090453Z AMSR2 AND 090331Z GMI (89GHZ BOTH) IMAGES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIAGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (PGTW, 30KTS) AND T2.5 (RJTD,
35KTS) AND THE WIND FIELD PRESENT IN A 090051Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE WIND
FIELD REMAINS BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WITH WEAK (10-20 KTS) WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEMICIRCLE AND HIGHER (35 KTS) WINDS DISPLACED 50
NM FROM THE LLCC OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. THE ASCAT-A
DATA ALSO CONTAINS ISOLATED 45 KTS WINDS DISPLACED 140-170 NM OF THE LLCC
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TS 05W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND
THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY REMAINS UNDER FAIR UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, HOWEVER CONVERGENT FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS OFFSETTING THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR SOUTH OF KOREA. DURING THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS AT TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM  (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SSTS, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW FROM THE WEST. THE
CONVERGENT FLOW, COUPLED WITH DECREASING SSTS FROM 29 TO 24 CELSIUS, IS
EXPECTED TO HINDER INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 12 TO TAU 24. AT THIS TIME
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS TS 05W TRAVELS ACROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN IT WILL
CONTINUE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 35 KTS DUE TO COOLER
(22-23 CELSIUS) SSTS AND MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VWS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY DUE TO
ENHANCED OUTFLOW FROM TO THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. BY TAU 48 TS JANGMI WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WEST OF
HOKKAIDO. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED AND REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE 70NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24 INCREASING TO 120 NM BY
TAU 48. THE OVERALL AGREEMENT OF GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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