MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 05// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT IN THE MSI AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING PRESENT IN 090453Z AMSR2 AND 090331Z GMI (89GHZ BOTH) IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (PGTW, 30KTS) AND T2.5 (RJTD, 35KTS) AND THE WIND FIELD PRESENT IN A 090051Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WITH WEAK (10-20 KTS) WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEMICIRCLE AND HIGHER (35 KTS) WINDS DISPLACED 50 NM FROM THE LLCC OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. THE ASCAT-A DATA ALSO CONTAINS ISOLATED 45 KTS WINDS DISPLACED 140-170 NM OF THE LLCC IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TS 05W IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY REMAINS UNDER FAIR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, HOWEVER CONVERGENT FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS OFFSETTING THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR SOUTH OF KOREA. DURING THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS AT TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SSTS, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW FROM THE WEST. THE CONVERGENT FLOW, COUPLED WITH DECREASING SSTS FROM 29 TO 24 CELSIUS, IS EXPECTED TO HINDER INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 12 TO TAU 24. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS TS 05W TRAVELS ACROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN IT WILL CONTINUE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 35 KTS DUE TO COOLER (22-23 CELSIUS) SSTS AND MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VWS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY DUE TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW FROM TO THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. BY TAU 48 TS JANGMI WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WEST OF HOKKAIDO. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED AND REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE 70NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24 INCREASING TO 120 NM BY TAU 48. THE OVERALL AGREEMENT OF GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN