Tropical Storm DANAS Advisory Sat Jul 20

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED, PRIMARILY, TO THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 190425Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
IMPROVED BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT OF THE LLC SUGGESTING A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TREND. ADDITIONALLY, A LINE OF EXTENSIVE DEEP
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF
THE SYSTEM, AND, BASED ON RECENT KMA RADAR IMAGERY, IS EXPANDING
ACROSS CHEJU ISLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN KOREAN PENINSULA. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MSI. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS
ASYMMETRIC AND EXPANSIVE WITH CONVERGENT GALE-FORCE WINDS FUELING
THE PERSISTENT HEAVY CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
WIND RADII FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL WIND RADII CONSENSUS
(RVCN) AND REFLECTS THE EXTENSIVE SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS. TS 06W
IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF
80NM AT TAU 36, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LANDFALL LOCATION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CENTER. AS TS 06W
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF SOUTH KOREA NEAR TAU 24, IT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WITH SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY TAU 48.//
NNNN
NNNN