MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07 (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED AT THE CENTER OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN 250600Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, BASED ON 250006Z AND 250032Z ASCAT PASSES INDICATING 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. TD 07W HAS TRACKED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. STORM MOTION HAS SLOWED TEMPORARILY DUE TO CHANGING STEERING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY AS THE RESULT OF RECENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS LEFT THE LLCC FULLY EXPOSED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND STRONG EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 IS PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, CONSISTENT WITH A SHIFT IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE PACKAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. B. TD 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN TURN EASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AXIS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEAR-TERM DESPITE PERSISTENT VWS. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND LAND WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. C. TD 07W WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN THE EXTENDED TERM, PERHAPS SOONER. THE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN SEPARATE FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AS IT DISSIPATES, SO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.// NNNN NNNN