MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (NARI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 07W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION MARKS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN 260600Z MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR DATA AND A 260558Z SSMI PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING EXTENSIVE AREAS OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION. AN INFUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) HAVE LEFT THE LLCC OF TS 07W PARTIALLY-EXPOSED. HOWEVER, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER (28-29C) AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAVE BALANCED THESE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ENABLING TS 07W TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. TS 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY TURN EASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN HONSHU AS PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO OFFSET THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCES OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND VWS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 DUE TO PASSAGE OVER LAND AND COOLER WATER TO THE EAST OF HONSHU. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STEERING SCENARIO, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN