Tropical Storm WIPHA Advisory Sat Aug 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER. A 020613Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT CORE WITH AN
OBLONG MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE
PGTW/RJTD SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. TS 08W HAS
TRACKED SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY BUT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY TRACKING
WESTWARD OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER,
THE FORECAST DURATION HAS BEEN CUT TO 36 HOURS.
   B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA AND VIETNAM.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST VIETNAM NEAR TAU 24
AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK, WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN AT 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT
SKIRTS THE COAST AND TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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