MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A 30NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. A 260709Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ALONG WITH A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 95KTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD. THE CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A 260202Z ASCAT- C IMAGE AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS REMAIN CONDUCIVE. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AND TY 09W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TY 09W WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STR TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). OF NOTE, THE ECMWF SOLUTION DIVERGES TO THE EAST FROM THE MODEL MAJORITY AFTER TAU 24. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REFLECTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) FORECAST TRACK. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS POLEWARD, INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 12 AND COOLING (25-28 CELSIUS) SST IN THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO TAU 24 AND WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AROUND TAU 24, TY 09W WILL COMMENCE ETT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ETT COMPLETION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. AT THIS POINT, THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BE NEAR THE JET. OVERALL, DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN