Tropical Storm LEKIMA Advisory Sun Aug 11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 100526Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE AND RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE, INTERACTION WITH LAND /
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE THE PRIMARY WEAKENING MECHANISM. TY 10W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH REORIENTS NORTH-SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF
CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.  AT TAU 72, TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS CLOSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CHINA.
OVERALL, TRACK CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH.//
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