MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY BROAD BANDS OF WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SPIRALING AROUND A LARGE, RAGGED AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0/45KTS TO T4.0/65 KTS AND REFLECTS THE OVERALL WEAKENED STATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH A LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE LLC THAT IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER, AROUND THE LOW IS A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. ALONG-TRACK SST AT 30C REMAINS CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TS 11W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR. THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT BEST UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS KROSA WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND TURN POLEWARD THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER WESTERN SHIKOKU JUST BEFORE TAU 96, THEN CROSS INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ). LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING VWS, AND COOLER SSTS IN THE SOJ WILL COMBINE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT TO OVER 260 NM BY TAU 120 WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER. THERE IS OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY NAVGEM SOLUTION THAT DRIVES THE VORTEX INTO THE STR.// NNNN NNNN