Tropical Storm KROSA Advisory Fri Aug 16

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR
039//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY ERODING AFTER IT MADE LANDFALL OVER WESTERN
SHIKOKU AND CROSSING RUGGED TERRAIN INTO WESTERN HONSHU. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND NUMEROUS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE DECAYING CONVECTION. TS 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 11W HAS CRESTED THE STR AXIS AND WILL NOW TRACK MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, EXITING INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) JUST AFTER
TAU 06, BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HOKKAIDO. THE
ADDITION OF COOLER SST IN THE SOJ WILL ACCELERATE THE CONVECTIVE
DEGRADATION. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH
AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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