MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM CONVECTION AND EYE STRUCTURE HAVE REMAINED SYMMETRICAL OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY. THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR, HOWEVER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE 28 NM DIAMETER EYE PRESENT IN THE MSI LOOP, THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP, AND IN A 050407Z ATMS 165 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BETWEEN MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS, PGTW) AND T5.5 (102 KTS, RJTD) AND NEAR A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.4 (100 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND IS TRACKING OVER CONTINUED WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), HOWEVER THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TY HAISHEN IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO, JAPAN. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY HAISHEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM CENTER WILL BEGIN TO PASS WEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN. AT THIS TIME TY HAISHEN WILL WEAKEN TO 85 KTS DUE TO THE HIGH VWS TO THE NORTHWEST, AS WELL AS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER (DROPPING TO 27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER PASSING WEST OF KYUSHU, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA. INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN, COUPLED WITH INCREASING VWS, WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING TO 60 KTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AND BRIEFLY OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL FOR A SECOND TIME AGAIN OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. FURTHER TERRAIN INTERACTION AND HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER IT WILL BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM WHICH CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREME RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. AS SUCH, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET WEST OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THIS UNREALISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE. THE TIGHT OVERALL AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN