MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM EAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060454Z 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) LOCATED UNDER FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, PROVIDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH OF TS 14W. THESE FEATURES CREATE SUBSIDENCE AND RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM, LIMITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION. THE WEAKENED TUTT CELL IS ALLOWING SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO DEVELOP TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. TS 14W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT WITH VALUES OF 10-20 KTS AND CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH IS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. BEFORE BEGINNING TO ROUND THE STR AXIS NEAR TAU 36, TS 14W WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, TS 14W WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER HONSHU, JAPAN NEAR TOKYO SHORTLY AFTER RECURVING. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED, ALLOWING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KTS BY TAU 48. THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL ENHANCE THIS OUTFLOW AS WELL. AFTER LANDFALL, TS 14W WILL WEAKEN TO 65 KTS PRIOR TO RE-EMERGING OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM (EASTERN OUTLIER), DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. C. AROUND TAU 72, TS 14W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST, TRANSFORMING INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD ALONG-TRACK AND FAIR CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK BEYOND TAU 72.// NNNN NNNN