MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 14W CONTINUES TO DECAY AS IT TRACKS EAST OF HONSHU INTO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEPICTED IN EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0 (RJTD) TO 4.5 (PGTW), REFLECTING THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY FAXAI WILL CONTINUE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WHILE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 24, TY 14W WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN